How scoring works

Making a forecast

A forecast contains a list of items — for the impeachment trial, one item per senator. For each item you pick one outcome: Acquit, Convict, or Abstain. You are not asked for a probability.

You do not have to forecast every senator. Partial forecasts are allowed, and you can add or change picks at any time until that particular senator locks.

Locking

Every senator has their own lock time, shown on their card and counted down in Philippine Standard Time. Once a senator locks, that pick is final — it cannot be added, changed, or withdrawn. Other senators stay open on their own schedules.

Locking is enforced by the database itself, not by the page you are looking at. A pick submitted after the lock time is rejected even if the button was still on screen.

Scoring a pick

A pick is correct when the outcome you chose matches the outcome that actually occurred. There is no partial credit and no penalty for a wrong pick beyond not scoring.

How Abstain is defined

A senator is scored as Abstain in every case where no vote of Acquit or Convict is recorded for them. That includes:

• an explicit abstention
• recusal or inhibition from the proceedings
• absence when the vote is taken
• a vote that is otherwise not recorded

If you picked Abstain for that senator, you are correct in all of the situations above.

Voided items

If a senator leaves the proceedings entirely — for example by resignation before any vote — that item is voided. A voided item is removed from everyone's totals: it does not count as correct or incorrect, and it is excluded from your accuracy and from the leaderboard requirement.

Your result

Your result has two parts, both counted only over senators you personally forecast and who have already resolved:

• Correct picks — how many you got right.
• Accuracy — correct picks divided by your resolved picks, as a percentage.

Senators resolve one at a time as their votes are cast, so both numbers update during the roll call rather than all at once at the end.

The leaderboard

To appear on the leaderboard you must have forecast at least half of the senators in the forecast. The exact number is shown on the forecast page. This keeps the ranking meaningful: without it, someone who forecast a single senator correctly would outrank someone who got twenty out of twenty-four.

Among eligible forecasters, ranking is by, in order:

1. most correct picks
2. then highest accuracy
3. then most picks made
4. then whoever forecast earliest

Those four keys together always produce a definite order, so ties never resolve arbitrarily.

Corrections

Results are entered by hand as the roll call happens. If an outcome is entered incorrectly, we correct it and every affected score is recalculated automatically. Corrections are recorded, and we will not quietly change a result — but we also will not leave a known error standing.

What scores are worth

Nothing, deliberately. There are no prizes, no payouts, and no way to buy, sell, or transfer a score or a ranking. Forecast Philippines is free to play and is not a betting product.